Trudeau’s his global fans might be surprised by his demise. No one in Canada is
Justin Trudeau, like his father before him, forgot that while Canadians are proudly independent, they also understand their relative economic wellbeing (no less than their national security) is almost entirely dependent upon access to the US market and strong relations with a US administration. Effectively campaigning against Republicans inside Canada, and Trump in particular, for domestic political purposes, has come at a potentially very real economic cost to Canadians. It will likely fall to a post-election Conservative Party PM Pierre Poilievre to rebuild relations with the US, as it did to Conservative Brian Mulroney following Pierre Trudeau and Ronald Reagan’s sometimes strained alliance.
While for decades the progressive side of politics has had dewy eyes about Canada, it is the right of centre around the world now watching keenly. For the real story of Canada in recent years is the rise of the Conservative Party, and in particular leader Poilievre.
A conservative more in the mould of Margaret Thatcher, John Howard or Jeff Kennett than Trump, Poilievre and his team are younger than Trudeau’s team, and more comfortable with openly challenging progressive-left presumptions. They are a new generation of politicians whose first experiences are with the fragmented and contestable media market of the post-internet and social media world. His success in mobilising new constituencies for the centre-right has the potential to upend old assumptions about voting behaviour in a way not seen since the turn of the century – and not just in Canada.
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In explicitly repudiating Trudeau’s language and approach to social and cultural issues, promising to repeal Trudeau’s agenda from drug liberalisation to the carbon tax, and focusing on very specific concerns around inflation, housing costs, immigration and crime, Poilievre has seen the Conservatives develop large leads among younger voters, Canadians with migrant backgrounds, blue-collar workers and others who parties of the right have historically not had success appealing to. His communication via social media, going direct to voters around traditional media, has reaches extraordinary audiences in the millions. Polls have been forecasting a record election victory for the Poilievre opposition for the past 18 months, with the lead recently increasing to over 20 points, threatening the party status of Trudeau’s Liberals.
But keep an eye on Justin Trudeau – his father lost an election in 1979, resigned as opposition leader pending a leadership contest, then un-resigned when an election unexpectedly presented itself, and went on to serve as prime minister for another four years. Recently Trudeau made an off-hand comment that at his age his father still had a dozen years as PM ahead of him.
However, the more likely ending is Trudeau’s departure and a leadership change, providing a temporary PM before a conservative landslide at an election soon after – just as occurred after Trudeau Senior eventually resigned in 1984.
Scott Ryan was a minister in the Turnbull government, president of the Senate and recently high commissioner to Canada 2021-24.
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